Month: October 2022

October 15, 2022

Markets Are Going Crazy Anticipating the Fed

I’m just going to talk to you about a follow up to a video/audio podcast that I did a couple of days ago. And it was about the Bank of England, and the collapse of the currency or the seeming collapse at the time and the currency. And now it’s kind of recovered. But I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet. I think when you start to see systemic problems, you start to see cracks in the system now whether the central bank will just be able to print money in England, and fix the problem. Well, that’s what they’ve always done, I just don’t think it’s going to continue to work. It might work short term, it is certainly working short term, the pound has gone from $1.03 per pound to $1.14. Just in a week. It’s good, actually pretty amazing. But it’s certainly of note that there are some problems with the pensions, there’s problems with inflation, there’s problems with printing money out of thin air, there’s when you get something for free, it’s just not worth it. Think about the last time you got something for free.  

And so, let’s fast forward to what’s going on around the world the last few days, we’ve had rapid increases in the market. So, the market has said, “Well, if the Bank of England is going to print money, that means that the other central banks in the world are going to print money.” Well, that’s probably true, right? We’ve been kind of waiting for the Fed to “quote unquote”, “pivot” after before they broke things. So that’s what the market is thinking.  

Okay, look, if they’re going to print money, then we’re going to print money in the United States, we’re going to print money in Japan, and we’re going to print money in Europe, then we’re going to print money everywhere, and that’s going to make everything go up. So, what it’s always done, so I guess it will always happen.  

So, the markets are loving that but the problem is that I’m not seeing a huge amount of volume on that. So when there’s not a huge amount of volume, it’s generally the people that are knee jerk reaction to news that drive those events. And not necessarily the big smart money. Now, I don’t know if there is any smart money in the world anymore. But generally, when you see these moves, you have to watch this big move. So, the last couple days, like 5- 6%, in the market going up? And that’s often, you know, pretty recent bottom, we tested the lows from back in June. But will it sustain? I don’t know, I’ve always believed that we’re in a bear market, at least since last November when the Fed came out in the US and said, “Hey, listen, we’re going to be tightening soon, so get ready.” And since that nine-month period has gone by, we’ve essentially started a bear market. And I think we’re going to continue the bear market. Sure, we’re going to have some bear rallies in here. And I don’t try to predict the markets, I try to play them as they come every day. So, you’ve got to do the same thing.  

The reason we have this wealth architect podcast, and maybe the reason you tune in is because it’s more than just, “Hey, give your money to a broker and let them just do the thing,” right? But it’s this buy and hold and, you know, 10 years from now, 20 years from now we’re looking at our portfolio, and the market goes up, right? Well, it doesn’t always go up. I mean, it took, if you look at the prices in 2020, the markets were basically flat, at least the NASDAQ was flat. And if you factor in inflation, you’re going backwards. And so, you need to kind of be aware of what’s going on the world doesn’t mean you need to knee jerk react on everything that’s going on around the world either. But you should at least be aware of what’s going on to the you could take action if you need to.  

And that action means not giving up your power and your health, your wealth of your time. And so, if you give your money to a broker who’s not paying attention to world events, who doesn’t know what’s going on in the Bank of England, who doesn’t know how to react? Well, then you’re giving up your power. And I hate to see you do that. I want to see you take control of your money, at least, you know, trust, but verify. You may want to trust somebody but verify that they’re doing the right things with your money. Listen, if you’re watching this here in 2022, you probably gotten hammered giving your money over to somebody else. You might have even gotten hammered if you’ve been handling your own money, because it’s too easy to click a mouse on the screen and invest $100-$200 $300,000. And pretty soon if you don’t know what you’re doing, you’ve given up a lot of money. And then you say, “well, I’ll just wait. And it’ll come back.” That’s what most investors do. And I don’t want you to be one of those investors. I want you to take control and know that there are strategies, there are things that you can do if you understand the information, and you can apply it to your own portfolio.  

I believe that there’s lots of different assets that you can invest in, that are prudent in this market. People are like; “what do I invest in?” Well, if you look at it from the outside, you say well real estate’s about to go down and get crushed. You look at mortgage rates are at 7%. Okay, real estate, you look at gold, it hasn’t done anything for 10 years, you look at Bitcoin has gotten hammered over the last year, year and a half. And you know, the evidence is there that there’s not a lot of stuff the stock market has gone down for the last 9-10 months. The bond market is just the safest money in the world. The US Treasury market has gone down 20-30% We’ve lost money, so where do you put your money? You can’t put it in bank. Where do you turn? But there are smart places to put your money. And I can’t tell you that right now on this podcast, because I don’t know, you’d be imprudent for me to say, you definitely got to buy Bitcoin or you definitely got to put your money in the stock market. But I can tell you, you got to have a system, you got to know what’s going on. And that system is going to allow you to take the emotion out of the market, we have a system called the cash flow machine that I talk about, it’s my system, very proud of it, it’s my life’s work. And I believe in creating cash flow in your investing rather than just sitting there and waiting and hoping that the money drives it up, because a lot of people put their money in GE 30-40 years ago. And they don’t have much shuffling. Same with for, you know, with Sears. So, a lot of times these big blue chips that you think are going to be around forever, they got a business. In fact, there’s not a single stock that’s in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, that was created more than 100 something years ago, but still Industrial Average, the last one was GE and they took that out of I don’t know, seven or eight, nine years ago. And so, there are no stocks left, that lasted 100 years. Think about it, it’s pretty bad. That tells you that most stocks are going to go out of business over time, because of competition, because of bad management, because of, whatever the market. So, you need to take control. And I wanted to bring this to you because I don’t think this bear market rally is going to last forever. Hey, I can be wrong. But I react to the markets, not just on a daily basis, I can let the markets tell me what they’re doing. But if they’re not telling me an accurate story, I’m a little skeptical. I raised some eyebrows here and there and I hope you do too. 

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