Month: March 2022

March 25, 2022

Commodity Inflation Outta Control

Now this is a video and an audio podcast. And today, it’s just going to happen to be skewed a bit toward the video, because we’re going to do a little bit of charting now, I’ll try to walk you through the charts if you’re just listening to the audio podcast. But if you can get to YouTube or the video format of this, it’s going to be a little bit more helpful, but you won’t be lost. I’m going to be talking a bit about inflation and all the crazy stuff that’s going on around the world and how we’re about to hit almost hyperinflation or pre hyperinflation, as I call it. In the United States and in the Western world.  

We’re going to be talking about this subject that I happen to be talking a lot about, I’ve been talking about it for a couple years, I’ve been warning people inflation’s coming, get ready get positioned, because things are going to be wonky, and they’re going to be strange. And now we’re seeing tons of wonkiness.  

I want to show you some charts about, just to jump right in about what we’re experiencing in the inflationary world. So, let’s start with the chart of wheat. Look at this chart. If you look at the right side of it, we’re here we are in March of 2022. Wheat has absolutely spiked. Now there’s a huge war going on in Ukraine, and Russia. And those two places make a ton of wheat for Central Europe. So obviously, with that skirmish going on over there, there’s not going to be a lot of people thinking about plowing their fields. So those fields are going to go fallow, they’re going to go back to the way they were, they’re not going to be producing probably the kind of wheat that they were producing, which means there’s going to be scarcity and when there’s scarcity of anything, the price drives up as long as there’s demand and people need to eat. People need to eat bread, and anything else made with wheat. So you’re seeing that but it’s not just limited to wheat, it’s applying to all commodities. Take a look at oats, record high right oats go up, you need a lot of oats, there’s a lot of food that’s made with oats, there’s a lot of feed for livestock that’s made without same thing with wheat. Oats are at an all-time high. Take a look at copper all time high as well. Right? Looking at that now copper goes into construction. And I could show you charts and graphs on lumber, on concrete on all the other things, but this one pretty much embodies what’s going on in construction because you need it for wiring you need for plumbing, in some cases, you need it for a lot of different things. And if copper is expensive, everything else follows and it’s at record highs. So that’s what’s going on in copper.  

Now the big one here for me is that crude oil is now back at a record high and you’re seeing it at the pumps. But the pumps are just a small place where you see it.  You see it because that’s what you’re paying. But as you’re driving down the street, notice how much of your car is made out of plastic, right? Look at the door panels, look at the steering wheel, look at the dash, look at the panel, the radio, look in between the seats, the console, you open up the hood.. I had a BMW once and they made the water pump out of plastic. And it’s this is the thing that boils water, right, it’s 208 degrees. And its right around boiling water, they made it out of plastic and it blew up. And the impeller inside the pump was plastic. So much of your car is plastic. Where do you think they make plastic from.. the plastic tray? No, they may get from oil and petroleum.  

And they also make fertilizer from oil and petroleum. And Russia is a big fertilizer producer and they decided the other day that they’re just hanging on to their own fertilizer just going to help their own people with their own fertilizer, which means they’re not going to be exporting a lot of fertilizer. What do you think’s going on with the price of fertilizer?  It is going through the roof, and if it goes through the roof, so the cost of the products on these graphs that I’ve shown you.  We are just the beginning of the kind of inflationary upward. But oil affects everything because the trucker needs oil and the trucker needs to get your cucumbers and tomatoes and goods to the store. If he has to pay too much for oil, it gets passed along to you, meaning higher prices again. Plus, now we have wage issues with those truckers because we have supply chain issues. More inflation has to pay them more the insurance is going to be more wrecks on the road, things are going to be going up in price. With all those things. I’m not saying every one of them is a major contributor. But you know, when you start to add a lot of weight, it starts to add up.  

Now these are these to me are really interesting, not so much the numbers, but the trends. Everything was going along kind of hunky dory until about January of 2021. And that’s when people started to go back to work. They started to open up some of the economies. And over the last year you’ve seen that spike straight up when anything goes up at a 45-degree angle or higher. It’s very dangerous, and this one can continue to go higher. I think it’s just the beginning of the event; missionary spiral that we’re in. And I’ll just say this one thing, inflation is a tax on the poor.  If you are of means and you can afford to go out and spend another $30 a week on your groceries, yeah, you don’t like it. Same thing with oil. If your gas is 60-70% higher than it was last year, yeah, you don’t like it, but it’s not going to force you to starve. But for somebody that’s a lower income, who has their last bit of money, and they are running out of money before they run out of month, they don’t have enough money to buy either that tank of gas or filling it only up halfway, or they’re buying worse food, which is going to create health problems down the road, you know, they can’t afford to buy the things they want. So that’s affected.  

Now let me just go through this. This is the same kind of chart. But it basically ends at 2021 in November, and you can see this, the trends are spiking up, it’s not like they were all the way up from 19 to 20. It’s just spiking right and you’re seeing it. And once that spike starts to happen, if we don’t get it under control, and I don’t believe the Fed can get it under control, they’re going to try to raise rates at a quarter of a percent, half a percent. But inflation is running, they say at 8%. It’s running way more than 8%.  Car prices, just used cars, are up 40%, gas is up 100%, our eggs have gone up, you go to the grocery store, those costs have gone up 30-40%, I don’t know where they’re getting the figure of 8%. But if you believe them, and you’re still only raising the rates by a quarter of a point, that’s not going to be able to be enough to bring down demand. And so, spiraling inflation is going to continue to happen. Plus, the Fed has painted another quarter. Now, I don’t know and I don’t want to get too wonky on the bond market and too wonky on how much money the Fed has borrowed or created, basically from you, this money out of thin air. And so, there’s $30 trillion floating around on thin air that that money, has to be paid with interest, they are borrowing it, right? Every time you borrow something, you have to pay interest on it. Well, the interest has been really low for a while, right, half a percent, 1%- 2%, depending on the length of it. And so, interest had been low, it hasn’t been very big bond payment. But all of a sudden, the Fed starts to raise rates, well, there’s going to be a huge sell off and bonds, have been up for 40 years in a row, they might go down now and pretty drastically. And that’s if they raise rates too fast, or they’re going to raise rates on themselves such that their interest payments have to go up. If interest payments have to go up where you think they’re going to get that money, they’re either going to come after you and get it in higher taxes, or they’re going to have to raise more money, print or create more money, right? What does that do? Well, the more money you put into this into something, the less scarce it is, right? So basically, it’s going to be, instead of spending $11, on a dozen roses, for example, you’re happy to spend $13, that’s going to cause more inflation, more money, which is where we’ve come from, is going to create more inflation. And so, that’s going to raise the debt even more. This is an upward spiral that the Fed and all the other central banks have gotten themselves into, in the last well, 100 years, but really specifically the last two or three years for sure. You know, I could just keep pulling up commodity after commodity after commodity. Everything is inflating.  

So, what do you do about it? Well, it’s a tough one. Traditionally, you’ve been in a 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds. Now, it was a lot less when I was in Wall Street and growing my business, it was, you want to be more in bonds if you’re older and less bonds if you’re younger.  

Now, why would you want to get 2% in a bond when inflation is running at stated rate is 8%. But realistically, it’s running to 20-25%. You wouldn’t want to do that, it’s a bad investment. But people are so conservative, and they’re so worried about getting their money back, that they’re not willing to take any risk. But the rates are so low that they’re forcing you to take risks, otherwise, you’re losing real purchasing power in your dollar. In other words, your dollar this year, if you had $1 last year, this year, it’s only worth 80 cents in purchasing power. Alright, so what do you do? Well, I don’t want to leave you hanging, right? I want to get just get you to understand what’s going on. But one thing I want to say is that an economy is measured on the productivity that it produces, right? So, if you produce a lot, your economy, your GDP, your society, your account, everything goes up. But over the last couple years, we’ve been incentivized to not produce, we were told to stay home, watch Netflix, you know, screw around at home and gain some weight, whatever. And that hasn’t been productive for our economy. But wait, we didn’t stop buying. We got free money from the government. And we kept buying and it created a supply chain problem. So, what can you do? Because that’s the question people always ask me now, I’m not you and this isn’t financial advice. But if I, were you, or if I were me, and I am me. So, I will tell you what I do. You have some money in real estate. Real estate will hedge you if the economy continues to heat up, because it’s an asset, especially if it’s a cash flowing asset, then you get some tax advantages. Depreciation up, depreciation potentially, and then phantom income and other things like that. So, you want cash flowing assets. Additionally, you want stock market assets, in my opinion, because stock markets are assets that go up during an inflationary time. But it’s timed, it’s tough to be in the markets.  It is tough to time the market, buy and hold doesn’t work. We know that over time, you might have gotten lucky over the last 10 years, but really, the dollar is declining in value. It’s not that your buying power has gone up increasingly, incredibly strongly. But either way, I have a program called the cash flow machine, where we use our stock as the asset while we wait for it to appreciate. But we allow other people to give us income on the stock that we own, it’s not a dividend play, it’s more of an options play.  So, I’m convinced that that’s a great place to put your money, if you’re good at business, then either invest or start or own a business. Because especially if it’s a cash flowing business, it’s going to produce cash flow for you to live on. So, and then finally, the last part is what I call tech assets, you want to have some bitcoin, maybe right? Because I think Bitcoin is a good store of value.  

Now it fluctuates a lot, you’re going to have to wait for it. But it’s like putting your money in gold, like you’re going to have to wait for gold to go up to0.  People have been waiting for gold to go back to where it is for 10-12 years. And here we are back to where it was 12 years ago, so hasn’t really done much in 12 years while you’ve waited, so you can’t complain. If Bitcoin goes up and down, it doesn’t do anything in the next couple of months, because it’s a longer-term store value play. And I’m a big believer in Bitcoin. But you should also have some gold and silver and other precious metals. Because those traditionally have been a great hedge for inflation, the old 60/40 bond, or stock to bond portfolio is dead, because what would happen is you would put 40% of your money in bonds.  Now bonds are paying so little that there’s no real incentive to have bonds. So, they’re forcing you to take risks. And since they’re forcing you to take risks, those risk assets, as long as they keep money going into them probably will go up although right now, I think we’re having a little bit of a bear market. So, you got to be careful with the market, you have got to empower yourself. I would say “Never give up your power in your health, your wealth, or your time”. And I’m not being any different with that now. So, you need to diversify among assets, but concentrate within asset classes. And that way, you’ll be able to withstand the hyperinflation that I think is coming, we’re pre-hyperinflation at this time. Right now, it’s looking like, well, nominally 8%, up to what I think is 20- 25%, once we start going to a monthly rate where things are going up 10,12-15%, that spiral starts to increase out of control. And that creates huge problems for us, and the Fed and our economy. And it’s actually not just the US, it’s happening all over the world where they just printed money over the last couple years. 

So, there’s worldwide inflation, it’s going to cause worldwide margin pressure, that margin pressure is going to lead to lower earnings, those lower earnings are going to lead to poor performance in the stock market. And we could potentially be looking at a recession here down the road fairly quickly, as we’re having this hyper-inflationary spiral go up. And that’s going to cause what’s called stagflation, a stagnant, stagnant economy, with inflation.  Really bad combination. We haven’t had it since the 70s. And it was a really poor time in US history as far as economic or economic situation.  

So, listen, my goal was just to empower you, and to help you make decisions going forward. Because this is now something you have to think about, it’s enough to think too much that the Fed printing money, and you just throw money in assets, but those days are over. And now you have to really be strategic about your investments. Before I go, if you could do me a huge favor?  Like and Subscribe if you’re on YouTube, It helps a lot and helps me get this information to more people. Also, if you’re listening to this podcast, please take a moment like right now because if you don’t do it, now you’ll forget and go to my show and give me a rate and review please, hopefully as a five star but if you don’t like it, let me know. I’ll try to improve it. But give me a rating and review. I’d really appreciate it and we’ll get to get the word out to help more people take control of their money, help change the world just a little bit at a time. Because if we can take control of our power and our wealth, it’s going to help us a lot. Alright, thanks again.  

March 25, 2022

Inflation Medium Dive

I unfortunately think this is a really cool topic. But I don’t enjoy talking about it that much. Because I think it’s an unfortunate topic, right, but it’s a topic that we need to learn about. And that is the topic of inflation. So, inflation is simply when things go up in price. Actually, if you really want to reframe it and do it the right way, you have to look at it as when the dollar loses value, right? When the medium of exchange, the denominator actually goes down in value, prices seemingly go up. And so right now, the federal government is printing money, right? Printing it is like they used to, just printing out dollars and $100 bills. What they’re doing is adding zeros to the Fed’s balance sheet and spreading money out to the economy. And so, it’s, it’s when you have too much of something, it’s worth less, right like one rose is nice, 12 roses are really nice. But 1000 Roses, like, it’s not as nice. So, the value of those 1000 roses goes down, right, you don’t need to buy extra roses, you’re not going to want to spend the same amount of money that you spent on the first rose. So that’s a value thing. And so therefore, inflation contrarily goes up, and things go up in value. So, it gives you an idea. Before I give you the idea, though, I will tell you, the Fed came out and said or the reports came out and the CPI was reported at 7%, the consumer price index. Now, I don’t believe that, but that’s a government figure that’s created and changed over time to suit the government and its political purposes.  

But nonetheless, they’re supposed to take a basket of goods and compare it to a basket of goods from last year in the year before, they always changed what’s in the basket of goods. So, I don’t really see how it’s that relevant. So, I could just tell you that we all have our own basket of goods. When you start to analyze what’s in the basket of goods, the cost of living, right, what’s our real cost of living, you start to get a sense that what the government is telling us is the cost of living and what we’re really experiencing of the cost of living is not quite matching up. So, I’m just going to go over a few numbers. And if you’re watching this podcast on a video, I’ll have it on the screen. If not, I’m just going to tell you what the numbers are. And I’m going to let them sink in. So, I’m just going to go through year over year increases year over year inflation in certain categories. The first one is gasoline. Gasoline has gone up 49.6% Right. Gas was a couple bucks last year, it’s now more than $3.50 – $3.60. And if you’re in California with all the extra taxes they glob on, you know, you’re talking over four or five bucks. So, gasoline 49.6% beef, if you’re a meat eater, 89%. 18.6% Pork 15.1% Chicken 10.4% Fresh fish 10.2% Oranges, right, they grow out of the ground, how can they be more expensive, now 9.9%. Notice how not a single one is 7% so I don’t know how they’re getting an average. But furniture is 13.8% If you can get it a lot of furniture sitting on ships right now, dresses. 8% Now we’re getting kind of close to that seven jewelry 8.8% new cars up 12%. I just went and purchased a new car a couple of weeks ago with my girlfriend and I couldn’t believe how much a new car was, over $50,000 for a brand-new car?! Like I remember buying a brand new 1988 Honda Accord for $13,000 loaded and now new cars are $52,000. Just amazing. Used cars are up 37% When in our lifetimes have the value of used cars actually gone up. Usually, they say you drive it off the lot. It’s worth 30% less. Well, that isn’t happening right now. Used cars up 37% hotels, even though we have a pandemic, they’re charging an arm and a leg for hotels. So, you know it’s not a demand situation. You know it’s a value situation with the dollar car rentals as a result of prices of cars going up. And you can’t get cars because of a chip shortage or whatever they’re going to blame it on. You know let them blame it on anything they want, but car rentals are up 36% and they’re not going to blame it on is themselves.  

The fact that we’re printing money, we’re creating these green new deals and these build back betters and all these crazy programs that are not productive, because anytime you give the government money, they can’t spend it as effectively as the price the private sector can spend it. They just can’t. It’s they’ve never been able to, they never proven to be efficient, and it won’t work. So that’s what’s going on. Year over year, not a single one of those prices that I just told you was 7%.  

So, I don’t know what they’re putting in those stats..? 

Imagine going out for a drink. What’s a drink costing out? A decent place, depends on where you live, of course, but I used to pay $8 and thought that was expensive for a martini. Now it’s $20 for a martini, and a lot of places, many places, sometimes it’s $24. That’s not 7%  

Guys, like just five years ago, I was paying eight bucks for drink a couple years ago I was paying $2 for a gallon of gas a couple of years ago was paying, you know, $3.99 for a pound of chicken and now I’m paying a lot more. Everything has gone up. Okay, maybe it’s transitory as our fed, Chairman Jerome Powell says right? He says it’s transitory. And that one didn’t age well, because now he’s not saying transitory anyone anymore. And by the way, if you’re predicting your financial future, based on the predictions of the Fed, you’ve really sold a bill of goods, right? Because none of their predictions are right. And they’re the ones that are controlling the money. So why would we believe anything he says? Anything the Fed says, anything that politicians say, because what they’re telling you is that it’s transitory. It’s just going to be here for a little while. Well, we’re not going to say transitory anymore. Because, you know, we think it’s going to be here for a while, not a little while anymore. So, the Fed is looking pretty stupid. And the Fed is pretty stupid. And it has been ever since its inception, it served a purpose at the very beginning. But then they’ve gone astray. The Fed is trying to keep 2% inflation. Well, we’re way beyond 2% inflation, they think it’s seven, I’m telling you, it’s 20. And, you know, their purpose is to keep it at 2%. I mean, there’s no way, when real rates and real rates means that when you subtract what you’re actually getting from income, fixed income, and you subtract what the cost of living is, your real inflation rate is actually negative. So, if you get 2% on a bond, and that’s generous, but let’s say you get 2% on a bond, but your inflation rates 10%, you’re losing 8% a year in purchasing power, you keep your money in the bank, enough years, you’re going to lose all your purchasing power. Your $10,000 won’t be able to buy $10,000 worth of goods next year, it’ll buy much less. So in order to put this into perspective, and show you that it’s just not 7% It’s a little bit here a little bit there. It’s 32%. It’s 20. But I’ll tell you, let me go back to 1938. Tell you what things cost back then. And you can compare them what they cost around you and your area. A new house in 1938. You’re ready for it. $3,900 a new house. Okay. It didn’t have granite countertops, maybe back then. And it was a smaller footprint. It wasn’t a mansion. But $3,900 like double it to get a state-of-the-art home back then. You’re still talking about $7,800. How much was the average income back then? In 1938? If the average house was $3900. How much is the average income? $1,731 a year $1,731 A year if you’re making $1,731 a month now a lot of people consider you poor, right? A new car. I just told you how much a new car was, you know, a couple of weeks ago, it was $860 for a brand-new car in 1938. And they were pretty cool cars back then to write some cool 38 Mercury’s and Fords and really some really cool cars I’d love to have now. But $860 average rent. If you’re paying rent, I know you’re not paying $27 a month. And that’s what the average rent was back in 1938. About tuition to Harvard tuition to Harvard in 1938. You know what it is now, it’s like $40,000 a year or something like that. Tuition at Harvard $420 a year. A movie ticket 25 cents, gasoline 10 cents a gallon. You think that’s 7% increase and you know that many years. The US postage stamp back then was three cents. Today, you know what it is? It’s 55 cents or something like that. About Let’s talk about food, sugar, for 10 pounds of sugar. Now you go buy a pound or two. For 10 pounds of sugar, it was 59 cents. For vitamin D milk, a gallon of milk was 50 cents a gallon, ground coffee 39 cents per pound 1938. Bacon 32 cents per pound, it’s $10 a pound now guys, and eggs 18 cents a dozen. Now eggs, you’d be lucky to find them for under $2. They’re usually more like three or four. And so, you could see that there’s been an incredible devaluation, a debasement of our currency. And we’ve sat here and watched it happen, because it’s like the boiling frog analogy, right? If you put a frog in boiling water, he jumps right out. But if you put the frog in cool water, and then you put it on the stove, and you turn it up slowly, he’ll boil himself to death, because he doesn’t know when to jump out. We’re like the same way we let them do this, we let them print the money, debase the currency, give us freebies, we’re going to get some money for sitting at home during the pandemic, we’re going to get some special things for having kids, we’re going to get some special money for this for that. And while we look at our own interests, what’s happening around us is just crumbling.  

Inflation is a tax on the poor. And they wonder why the rich and the poor have a bigger and bigger divide. It’s because of inflation. Because the poor don’t have money to put into assets to hedge inflation. The poor don’t buy stocks, the poor don’t buy homes, they rent them, right? So, they don’t have a hedge against this debasement of our currency. But rich people, or even people that are just slightly fluid, have enough extra money to say, “You know what I need to invest for my future”. If I put money in stocks, well stocks track the rate of inflation over time, roughly. So, if you’re in stocks, you’re keeping ahead of inflation, or you’re staying even with it, or you’re certainly doing better than the person who doesn’t have anything in there and just lives hand to mouth. And it’s the government who is creating all of these problems, this divide, it’s not the supply chain issues, it’s not that we don’t tax the rich enough, it’s we just print money, because we give people free stuff. Or we think we can do it better as a government than they can in the private sector. And that just kills our economy.  

So, I have a chart up here, if you’re watching this podcast on a video, but bottom line, I’ll walk you through it, this is from 1800 until, 2020, roughly. Tt’s the buying power of $1 over time, and it starts out at $1. And it goes up a little bit and then it goes down to 60%. And then it goes back up to $1.60. The buying power of $1 over time from 1800 until now, to 2022, I guess, and then it’ll drop to 80 cents, and then it shoots back up. Now, during this period of time it was going up and down. The ups were because we were on the gold standard. We for every dollar that we had, you could go get some gold for that dollar when you went to the bank, or you could get some silver, when you went to the bank in 1971. That all changed and we no longer backed up our dollar with gold. We went off the gold standard in 1971. And since then, there’s nothing backing up our dollar. It’s just air right. So, people go oh, well, you know, Bitcoin is such a bad investment because nothing’s backing it up. There isn’t anything backing up the US dollar either. Except the back that there’s a big government with big bombs. Right, that, you know, we say that we stand behind the dollar and the whole world uses it right now. It’s changing. So, I’ll keep going. So in about 1900, the dollar was worth maybe $1.40.  That’s your buying power of $1 went up? It’s pretty cool. That was the last time it really went up. It’s been going down since about the turn of 1900 century, what does that 20th century and it’s just been going down, it gone down in 1919 to 60 cents, up ticked a little bit back up near the dollar. And then after the depression, it’s got done nothing but go down. And if you look and tell how close it is to zero. But it’s worth about two cents. In other words, the dollar has lost, I don’t know depending on the study. But according to this thing, about 98% of its value. Since 1800, it’s lost 98% of its value. Crazy, right? So, the question is where does the inflation actually come from? If you look at it from that period of time, where’s our inflation coming from? You hear Jerome Powell? You hear the government figures tell you that it’s 7%. In food and beverages, the average inflation since 1800 has been 3.9% a year. Now that’s a year. Now think about that. That’s inflation that’s compounded on itself. So, the numbers when you really look at them are staggering. Now let’s see if you can get your brain around this food and beverages since the 1800s. The inflation rate has been 492,820% That’s How much food and beverages have gone up? Because there’s a compound effect of inflation, right? 3.9% of this year on top of 3.9% an extra and it starts to compound. So, it’s 492,000%. How about housing? Well, the average inflation rate for housing is 4% 4.18%, actually, but total inflation over that period of time 183,000% for a place to live, right. In other words, it was in when the dollar was worth $1, in 1800. Today, it’s worth 831 for every dollar to buy that same house. Apparel, about 2%. And the inflation rate on apparel is pretty modest. 7,307%, transportation 3% average, but 133,000% inflation in transportation. And that’s with all the technological advances, medical care, you’re going to freak out on this one, right? Medical care has averaged 4.69% inflation for more than 200 years. Okay. But when you accumulate it and compound it, it’s, uh, it’s 2,622,915% for medical care. Now, medical care has moved a long way. And we live a lot longer, but 2,600,000% It’s a little higher than the 7% that were supposedly being told that things are happening. Okay, education, about a 2% or 1.84%, average inflation rate, but 5,600% to be educated, and other goods and services, I don’t know what they put in other goods and services. But the average inflation rate on that is about 5%. But the total inflation percentage on other goods and services, get ready. It’s four and a half million percent, four and a half million percent. Now imagine if you’ve got that kind of a return for those many years, right? Well, you would first of all, you would hedge inflation, you wouldn’t get ahead of it. But you would have you know, if you invested $1, in 1800, you’d have, you know, $4,568,000 in today’s money, that’s what $1 would have bought you back then, is this starting to make sense? Are we starting to realize that what we’re being told is not, it’s not conducive to our well-being? And now the government is doing much, much more of this. And it’s accelerating the pace at which they’re debasing the currency. Why, why is that? Well, they’re using something called MMT, modern, modern monetary theory. And modern monetary theory just says, it doesn’t really matter what the dollar is worth, just keep, keep printing more of it, we need more dollars, we need to give people more dollars, we need to buy their boats and give them free stuff. If we give them free stuff, they vote for us. So, let’s keep ourselves in office and we’ll give them free money, keep them quiet, so they don’t have a revolution. And then they’ll vote for us. And we’ll just keep staying in power, and we’ll be able to be corrupt, because I think there’s a lot of corruption in government. People, you know, getting money under the table, that happens at the end of societies is the people at the top that are running things, all get richer, and then at the expense of the people that are at the bottom. And I think that’s happening. And I think we’ve got lots of reports that we see that it’s happening, but that’s beyond the scope of what we’re talking about.  

The bottom line is the government is in the business of staying in the business of creating happiness among people, but people just think they’re happy. They’re just temporarily happy. But I can tell you, when your gas goes up, 50%, and you want to take a vacation with your family. And that last year was like the money you saved up and now you don’t have as much money to be able to spend on gasoline and hotels and food, you’re not going to be able to take that vacation with your family. It comes back to bite you another way. And that’s what’s happening to the government right now. And it’s going to get worse guys, you’re going to hear all kinds of reports in the next year, two years about how inflation is just a temporary thing. Once we raise rates, everything’s going to be fine. But when you raise rates, you raise the price of money. And when you raise the price of money, you slow down progress in the economy. When you slow down progress in the economy, people get fired. When people get fired. They’re upset, so you throw more money at them. What that means more people get fired. And the cycle continues until you have a recession and depression. That’s what we’re heading for right now. The government with this MMT theory is just like well, throw more and more and more money at it. But if you and I ran our households like the government runs its household, right? We would we would be in jail. They won’t let you just give people money that doesn’t exist, right. You have to pay your bills. And right now, we can barely pay our bills. The government interest on the debt that we’ve created is 30% of our GDP. It’s a crazy amount of money that we’re spending just to pay the interest off in our debt. Imagine if we raise the rates to try to quell inflation. Now we’ve got to pay more money on our debt. It’s a formula for disaster when you have to pay more money for your debt, you’re spending more and more of our taxpayer dollars. Now our taxpayer dollars are going to pay for some other country’s debt because they bought our debt 15 years ago, fine. But we don’t need to do that. You know, Ronald Reagan and several other presidents were out there saying we need a balanced budget to keep the government curtailed. I could tell you in the state of Florida, there’s a balanced budget amendment, and every year they come in with a balanced budget. Hmm. They don’t run deficits, right? They balance their budget every year, very responsible. As a result, the state runs well, there’s no personal income tax here, great place to live. And the economy is booming in the state of Florida. Contrast that with New York or New Jersey or Connecticut, high taxes, not a fun place to live right now. Right with all the lockdowns and craziness going on up there. Right, and mandates. And there’s no balanced budget So, they’re there, they’re going into debt there, things are going crazy in those states, and they have to borrow more and more money. And just like the federal government is borrowing all this money, it’s going to end in a disaster, right? So, I don’t know where it all ends. And when it all ends, I can just tell you that if you studied history and studied economics, and I have, and you start to look into what’s happened in other countries, when they’ve done the same exact thing at the end, those increases of free money increase at a much faster rate. And that’s what we have going on now. And it’s at the end of society where that’s happening. And I think because just looking at the graph, I don’t want to be doom and gloom because I love this country. But at the end of these things is where you’re going to get some major upheaval in the country, you’re going to have some major conflict, we’re already starting to see conflict in our country, just politically and socially. We’re starting to see some unrest. And if we don’t stop it, if we continue to be irresponsible, it’s not going to end well. And I think the way it doesn’t end well, and I don’t know how it manifests itself, right? Because it just doesn’t happen very often, probably happens every 100 years with a reserve currency. But when it doesn’t end well, you get a lot of changes. And so, I think that’s what’s going to happen, but you’re going to see potential defaults on the on the debt. Now I think we have a soft default going on by raising the rates, like we’re already defaulting on our rates, right? We’re devaluing the value of the bonds that people borrow. So that’s a soft default. Maybe eventually, it gets to the point where we undercut people, okay, we owe you $1,000 and will give you $500 for it, what do you say?  And that’s the beginning of the end, when people don’t lend us money. They don’t buy our bonds, and the economy basically collapses. That could be with the way it goes. It could be that there’s alternatives. There’s always been the gold alternative. Now there’s digital gold, which is Bitcoin it could it be that it moves toward that alternative? Because nobody can affect the supply and demand of Bitcoin? Or certainly the supply? You know, I don’t know, I can just tell you that with everything that comes down the pike. There are things that are setting up that are unpredictable. So, we don’t know what the tipping point is. Is it a bond collapse? Is it a stock market collapse? Is it the Fed inching up rates too fast or too slow, is that the government just continues to print indiscriminately, we don’t know where it’s going to happen. I can just tell you based on studying history, it has happened. So that’s my take on inflation. comment if you want, let’s have a discussion about it. But I certainly think there’s a lot of history behind what we’re doing. And I tried to give you a little bit of history so you can see what’s happening to your money in your wallet. And I hope that helps.  

March 21, 2022

My Bitcoin Trip to El Salvador

I actually feel like I’m in a time machine. It’s an amazing feeling. It’s really cool. I’ll tell you where I am and why I feel that way.  Well, I am in a big, big corner, as you know.  It took me a while to get there. But now that I’m there, I’ve gone down the rabbit hole. I’ve eliminated all my objections about Bitcoin. And I actually think that it’s probably the most perfect money that we’ve ever created, better than gold, because you can’t really take gold in your pocket, go across the border, or go to Europe with it, you know, $10,000 worth of gold. It’s just, it’s just too hard to do.  But you can do it with Bitcoin. And you could do it in a matter of seconds, you could do it with a very little transaction fee. It’s really amazing, it’s an amazing thing. Anyway, I could talk for four hours about Bitcoin.   

So, I am in El Salvador. Now. Salvador is this beautiful tropical country; you could see it behind me. And I would show you the beach but the waves are so loud, that you wouldn’t be able to hear the podcast. So, I’m going to show you a couple of pictures of the beach and where I am and what I’m doing. But El Salvador is actually ground zero for Bitcoin. What do I mean by that? Well, back in the middle of 2021, they passed the law that said, now they use the US dollar, right, but they passed a law that says bitcoin is now legal tender, in El Salvador, which means you can basically buy and sell things with Bitcoin. You couldn’t do that before. And you can’t do that in a lot of places. And they basically told every merchant they had to start accepting bitcoin. Now, this is a third world country.  

Let’s start with the basics. 30% of the people here had some kind of banking relationship. 70% did not which is pretty typical of the world. So, the world is 70% unbanked.  Think about the people and in those countries in Africa, think about the people in a lot of countries in Central America, there’s just no banking relationships. You and I take for granted that we’d go down to any bank within a couple of miles. And there’re probably 30 banks, right? We could open up an account.  They can’t do that in El Salvador, they can’t do that in a lot of countries. And therefore, they have to exchange currencies, or barter or do something else. A lot of people for example, I know story of some people in, in some of the African countries, they’ve never seen a bank. In order to get to a bank, they have to go an hour, hour and a half to be able to open up a bank account. So, they don’t have a use for that. They have other ways of doing it. So, 70% of the world is unbanked.  

In El Salvador, they have a country of about 6.8 million people. And what they did is they took 70% of their unbanked, and within three or four months they made them banked. So, this country has now gone from 30% banked to 70%, banked, which means now 30% are only unbanked, which now that it’s interesting, because banking just means that you have some way of controlling money, some way of giving money, or receiving money to somebody. You know where they do their banking, right here. And if you have a $50 phone, which almost everybody does, they use that as their bank. Now, I want to be part of this really cool culture. And so let me tell you why I’m here. So, I came here because I run a cryptocurrency hedge fund. And I thought, well, if I’m going to be running a crypto currency hedge fund, and I’m going to be responsible for all the people that are in my fund, and I feel extremely responsible to them. Because we’re in this in this new territory and we’re trying to figure out the best way to navigate the new territory, I figured I might as well get to Ground Zero. Where this is the first country in the world that is accepting bitcoin as their legal tender. So, I came here, kind of not knowing what to expect. And let me tell you, in a lot of ways, it’s still clunky, but in some ways, like if you think about these Third World people that are not used to transacting things in this way, and they’ve embraced it, imagine the rest of the world.? Imagine how silly we are for going oh,” Bitcoin will never work.” It works here. So let me give you an example. Last night, I went and had dinner and you know, food down here is incredibly inexpensive. And so I got a couple of pizzas and a beer. And I asked if they take Bitcoin and the woman said yes and I said, Okay, great.  This is my first Bitcoin transaction. I heard it was pretty easy, but I was expecting it to be a little clunky because it was my first transaction as well. So, I had my wallet where I had my bitcoin, right, it was right here on my phone. And she opens up her app., she puts in, $3.75 for dinner and the beer. And she showed me a QR code. And I turned my wallet on, and I took a picture of the QR code, I put it up there. And the money is transferred immediately, as soon as the button that says send, that was actually quicker than a credit card transaction. Imagine, quicker than a credit card transaction. I looked down to make sure that all my bitcoin wasn’t missing, But I had verified it on the QR code that she was getting that it was $3.75 or whatever the Bitcoin was, and then it verified on my phone, and then boom, it just transferred took two seconds. It cost me very, very little, like two or three cents to do the transaction. And that was it.  

If you see the video version, I’m going to show you some pictures up here on the video version of this podcast of how beautiful this place really is. It is one of the most beautiful places in the world that I’ve seen. And I’ve seen, I’ve seen 50-55 actually 56 countries. And where I am staying it’s what’s called Bitcoin Beach. It’s El Zonte, which has a beach here, but they kind of renamed it Bitcoin beach because everybody takes Bitcoin. And they’ve tried this, this experiment to see if it would take off. And it’s taken off for more than a year. And now you go down, you’re on the beach. And I’ll show you a picture here too. And there’s a woman that’s selling these little lemonades, or this little flavored ice, and she has a little umbrella and she’s on the beach and she sells these things. It’s just a sign it says Bitcoin accepted. Pretty cool, right? You don’t even have to be connected to a power station to be able to accept Bitcoin, you just have to have a phone. So pretty amazing to me that this is happening. So, this is a beautiful country. It’s progressing. And I went to a launch party of a company that is heavily involved in crypto space. Now I don’t really know much and talk much about NFT’s in a practical way. But I can tell you this company that I was that they had done a launch in conjunction with the country of El Salvador, it was a real estate play with crypto. It makes a lot of sense.   

I go to Greece a lot, and Greece is similar, the property disputes are rampant because they don’t have a really centralized, good way to lock up property rights. They don’t have ways to say, well, this corner of the property is mine, or it’s not yours, and we can prove it. And this company is taking a cryptocurrency NFT. And using that, to delineate property rights, and El Salvador very progressively is embracing it.  

More stories about El Salvador, they have something called the Bitcoin bond. So, El Salvador third world country, you might remember the drug stories of the gang stories, all the stuff they have here, I feel so safe here, unbelievably safe. And so that keeps a lot of people away. The press in a lot of countries I go to keeps a lot of people away. Even when I went to Greece a few years ago, I was they were having riots. And I told my buddy, I’m not going to come this year, because while they’re having riots, because they’re always having riots. And I go there and the riots, like 20 people or 30 people. It was really no big deal. But there’s nothing to be afraid of here. They want money from the world. They want to grow their country, they have a lot to offer, right, this place is just incredible. And the rest of the world is not giving them money, right, the International Monetary Fund, they don’t play by the IMF rules, because they’re a third world country. They don’t have you know, military operations, things like that. So, the IMF basically kind of gives them the cold shoulder. But they owe to the IMF. They borrowed some money some years ago. And they’re looking for some more. And the IMF said, “No, we’re not going to give any money.” So, what would you do if you run a country now, by the way, the guy that runs the country is this 29 year old guy named a Bukele and he is very loved by his people, because what he’s trying to do. He is trying to bring this country up, and I think this country is like where Costa Rica was 10 years ago. It’s that up and coming, that beautiful with that much potential? And he said, “You know what I’m going to do, I’m going to issue my own bonds,” he calls them Bitcoin bonds. He’s gonna issue those bonds to mine. Bitcoin was part of it, and to build infrastructure for the country, with the other part of it. Pretty smart, right?  

But then you don’t owe any money to anybody else. You owe money to the bondholders who believe that you’re going to pay them back based on the promises that you have and based on what bitcoin does now, whether Bitcoin takes off or doesn’t, I think it’s going to be amazingly successful. You know, that’s a different story, but he’s raising that money. He’s raising a billion-dollar Bitcoin bond, right to help us infrastructures that that goes a long way in a small country like this. Think about a billion dollars in a small community that you live in?  They have this beautiful series of volcanoes in the mountains here that create geothermal energy. And they’re going to be putting power stations next to these geothermal conductors, these volcanoes, and they’re going to make basically free power. Now, what do you need to mine? Bitcoin? Well, to mine Bitcoin you have to solve these complex mathematical equations and verify the transaction on the blockchain in order to make sure that the blockchain is solid. And it takes energy, right? So, it’s starting to take more and more energy, because the mathematical equations are getting more complex as Bitcoin grows into adaptation. And so, you need energy to be fairly cost effective. Because if it costs too much to mine, a Bitcoin, even by the time you get one, if you get one, you won’t be that much. So, imagine locating next is something that has free energy, like a volcano or a waterfall, right? Or, you know, some kind of solar park. Right? Those things are amazing. This one here happens to be next to a volcano. They’re doing some really cool things. And then finally, and I haven’t read all the rules yet, but President Bill Keller has actually pushed forward 52 new laws, they’re going to remove regulations and try to encourage people to bring their capital to this country. Now, what’s that going to do? Well, I’m telling you, right now, if you have this beautiful place which is right over here, 100 yards away, as beautiful as this beach, and you have technology that people are embracing. And you have a reason for people to be here with their money. Like there’s some future here. Contrast that with some of the other countries in the West, that you and I may live in that have, they don’t welcome your money, they tax the crap out of it. You know, they’re freezing bank accounts, if they don’t like what you’ve donated to. There, they’re not making things easy. 

But here, you get somebody with a little vision to be able to go forward and you’re going to create this amazing paradise. I think that, you know, we’re in this we’re 10 years before Costa Rica was but we’re also 10 years before a country like Monaco or Monte Carlo or, places in Europe that have already figured out how to draw money in by lowering taxes by offering this beautiful lifestyle by being technologically advanced by giving people a reason to be here. I think we’re looking at a gem in Central America. And if you haven’t been to El Salvador, and it was never on my list, you really owe it to yourself to check it out. I’m checking it out on behalf of my investors. A little bit selfishly, I’m also enjoying myself, and I think you should too.

El Salvador put it on your list.  

March 21, 2022

Bitcoin in El Salvador

Okay, so in the end of 2021, Bitcoin was adopted as legal tender standard in the country of El Salvador, South Central America. And El Salvador’s been using the dollar.  They’re not getting rid of the dollar, but they just realized that the dollar is probably becoming worth less and less and they use the dollar as legal tender, but they thought, “You know what, maybe it’s time for us to adopt a new, more technologically savvy standard?”. And this President they have, he’s a young guy, his name is Bukele. He’s kind of a visionary and he’s getting a lot of flack for it, of course, because anything that’s going to be successful in the beginning, you’re going to get lots of flack for it. So, there’s people in the country that really don’t understand this technological move. But I think it’s brilliant, right? I think what happens is it first of all, it puts him on the map in the world as a country that’s forward thinking and technologically savvy. And then second of all, it allows money to be attracted to that country. So other countries that are doing the same kinds of things, tax incentives and things like that, attract a lot of money to the country.  People will want to set up businesses there, they set up offices, and those are companies.  Countries that are attracting money now that money gets to move around society and that helps us societies. That’s the idea anyway, and Bukele thought, well, you know, what if I if I adopt Bitcoin, and I give everybody some bitcoin, so what he did is he gave everybody $30 USD worth of bitcoin. And he basically put everybody on a, what’s called a Chivo Wallet. So, he had this wallet that was available from the government, it was free. And everybody downloaded this wallet. And when you downloaded it, as a citizen, you all of a sudden have $30 in there. Now, they also made all the merchants have to accept Bitcoin as legal tender. So, if you went into a merchant, you had your wallet, you held your phone up to the machine, it had to accept Bitcoin. And that was the way they got people to use it.  Not everybody wanted to use it, they might have saved it, right? Because a lot of people think bitcoin is going from, you know, 40, 50 or $60,000 upwards to a million dollars. So, some people are just using it as a medium of storage storing value. Some people are using it as a currency, some people are spending it, some people are saving it. So, it all depends on what people want to do with it. But it’s their choice, they got it really from the government for free. Now that government went out and bought Bitcoin, it can’t just manufacture Bitcoin, like the US dollar or the euro, the yen, you can just create it out of nothing. So the government actually spent their money to do it. And they looked pretty good for a little while, then it went down. That’s what’s going to happen in a volatile asset. And anything that’s new and technologically advanced, and is cutting edge is going to be volatile, because there’s going to be all kinds of people that are going to be chopping it down, people going to be building it up, and it’s going to go back and forth. Think about the internet when it was first adopted. When the internet was first adopted, people were like, “what am I going to use this for? Like, I’m going to, I want to go to the store and buy things, or why do I need to do my banking online, I could just go into the bank, there are people that are going to help me.” And 20 years later, 30 years later, we realize how much the Internet has changed things. But in the beginning, people really didn’t see the utility. Same thing is happening in Bitcoin.  

In this country, it’s attracting all kinds of things. So let me fast forward through this. You know, you’re going to hear a lot of negative things about Bitcoin and you’re going to hear that it’s for money laundering, but any currency can be used for money laundering, like cash is money laundering. It’s why they don’t make a $500 bill or $1,000 bill, right, they think it’s easier to launder money with it. But that argument doesn’t really sit right with me. The other one is that Bitcoin uses too much energy and it’s creating all this crazy energy. And it requires huge amounts of energy, and it’s so good that it pollutes the world. It’s a bunch of crap because it’s a very efficient use of energy to create value, that then becomes a permanent value in a society that you use to transact transactions and to store value and do all the other things that money and currencies do. So, I can get into all that but not on this podcast. 

But it does create value and it’s a very efficient use of energy. Just to give you a quick thing, and I won’t go into too much, but imagine making a ship. Imagine making a cruise ship; huge plates of steel. How much energy is required to forge those plates of steel, how much heat? You don’t think that’s putting tons of heat energy and co2 and all the byproducts of energy into the into the world? Of course, it is and it’s not even efficient use on the other side of it. You get a ship sometimes, like right now, the ships are sitting outside of ports waiting to deliver their goods. They’re just sitting there. There’s no value. There’s no utility value other than holding things up that float and they’re floating. Or if it’s a cruise ship, they’re not doing too well. Right now, these days either with these lockdowns. So, you know it at the end of the day, what’s the utility after spending all that energy? Well, Bitcoin, its immediate utility, it’s a store of value, it’s a medium of exchange. Okay, so you’re going to hear a lot of FUD fear, uncertainty and doubt regarding Bitcoin. And regarding bitcoins adoption, you’re going to hear it all the way for the next 1015 years, until it’s widely adopted.  

But I think it’s going to be widely adopted. Let me tell you a couple of reasons that I think it’s going to be widely adopted. First of all, it’s an immutable source of currency right now, I don’t look at it as a currency, I still look at it as a digital gold or a store of value. But it’s an immutable, in other words, it can’t be changed, it is an immutable store of value. And, you know, a few years ago, we put all these sanctions on Iran. And we told everybody, “Hey, listen, don’t be trading with Iran.” And we tried to shut them down and force their government and squeeze their government. So, they would have a revolution. Now, you know, maybe that’s worked in the past, it doesn’t seem to be working, at least right now. In Iran, they figured out ways to go around the US dollar being the medium of exchange. And the first way they did it was they went to all the other trading partners, that weren’t the US and they said, “Hey, you want to trade with us, we don’t need to use the dollar, let’s use something else.” And they figured out a different mechanism.  

The other day they announced that they are going to be using Bitcoin. And so now you’ve got this big country that has a ton of value in its oil and other value, I’m sure as well. But really, we know of Iran is an oil producer. And now people are going to go right around the dollar. And they’re going to pay directly with Bitcoin. And everybody knows that if they accept Bitcoin, the US government can’t just print more of it and make it worse, make the value less and less. So, they went right around. If that happens, again, in a couple of other countries, if another El Salvador takes place, and there’s another one taking place right now called Tonga, and then you’re going to start to see Venezuela and maybe even Argentina accept Bitcoin. And you’re going to start to see some countries in Africa, except Bitcoin. Pretty soon, a lot of these countries are going to start trading together, right? And it’s not going to be stoppable. And the US government is not going to have the world’s reserve currency anymore. Now, right now, they have it, they trade oil and Petro dollars, that happens 99% of the time. But now that Iraq is saying, “You know what, we don’t need to accept Petro dollars, US base dollars, we’ll accept it in a different way. You can pay us in Bitcoin.” That’s threatening to the world’s place, the US is placed as the world’s reserve currency.  

But back to El Salvador. Really cool things that they’re doing now is they want to create a Bitcoin city. Now, everybody’s poopooing the idea, they take this beautiful area of their country, and it’s near a volcano, and they take that Earth created energy, and they create a mining area, and they use that heat to create energy, the energy that creates Bitcoin. What happens? Well think about that, if you’re a Bitcoin mining company, and there’s a lot of them, you’re going to move your company down there, because they’re going to give you incentives and the energy is cheap. And if the energy is cheap, and you bring your company down there, you’re going to employ people. So, people are going to have a job. And then there’s going to be restaurants put around those places, and people are going to go and it will create other jobs. And there’s going to be a whole economy created around Bitcoin city. It’s actually brilliant, right? Think about if every country did that. Certainly, the first ones that did it would attract a lot of interest. And that’s what El Salvador is doing. They’re attracting a huge amount of interest in Bitcoin city. They’re attracting a huge amount of interest from capital where capital wants to go where capital is welcome. So, capital wants to go to a place where people are looking at Bitcoin as the new monetary standard. And if you think about Bitcoin, as a value, compared to gold, gold didn’t go up at all in 2021. In fact, it went down about 7%, but Bitcoin rose about 130%. So, and that’s been happening over the last 10 years, gold has really not gained the value that it should have in an inflationary environment, but Bitcoin has. So, is Bitcoin being used as a supplement to gold? I think so. I think it’s taking a lot of the money that would have gone into gold and it’s going into Bitcoin.  

So, the lessons that we can learn from Bukele, the lessons that we can learn from El Salvador is that when you start to embrace an immutable, fungible, transferable electronic version of gold, and maybe you have had some cryptocurrency and currency characteristics, you start to accept that the US dollar isn’t the only game in town. And that there are other ways to do it. And maybe this guy is on to something, and maybe, and it’s going to be a test for the rest of the world and everybody’s watching. And maybe he’s a pioneer. And if he’s a pioneer, you can expect a lot more to come.  

Now, the last thing I’ll say about it is the world is in a bit of turmoil. Over the last several years, what we’ve done is we’ve just debased all of our currency, certainly the US has debased its currency by  30%,40%, or 50%. In fact, they say that 80% Of all the money that’s been printed, since the US Dollar was created, you know, a couple 100 years ago, has been created in the last two or three years. And if that’s the case, then the dollar is losing value, it’s lost 99% of its value over time. Anyway, if you look at the chart of what it’s worth today, I mean, think about 50 years ago, what you could have bought with $10,000, it was a car right? Today, can you buy a brand-new car, the same level for $10,000? Now, you have to spend about 30K or 40K, and that’s just 50 years ago, 100 years ago is a lot different. So, the dollar has lost about 99.5% of its value. And it’s continuing to do that as we start to as we continue to spend, and the government continues to create programs that are not productive, and then we print money.  

There are economies around the world that are failing, look at the Turkish Lira has gone up about 40% this year. The inflation rate is about 40%. It’s lost tons of value. So, the Turkish Lira, Venezuela, Argentina is ready to default on its debt. You’re going to start to see other countries around the world, probably accelerated because of the lock downs in this whole thing with the pandemic start to fail. When they failed in the past, what they would have done is gone to the dollar standard. And I think they’ll still do that. But I think now they’re going to start to embrace Bitcoin as another alternative, whether they go to the dollar coin, and the Bitcoin all together is something that I don’t know what will happen, but I’m sure curious about it. I really think that Bitcoin adoption is just starting to take place. We’re at the very beginning of this revolution.  

March 15, 2022

Zandi Says Recession Coming; Fed Clueless 

Today we’re going to talk about a common-sense approach that is about the Fed, you know, it’s one of my, one of my things that I like to talk about is the Fed. And I really wish I didn’t have to talk about it. But I think it’s so obvious that we’re screwed, right? And I want you to understand why we’re screwed, because so many people go through their life. And you know, believe me, that’s probably a better way to go through life and not worry about this stuff that I worry about with finances, and the Fed and the dollar and Bitcoin and all this stuff that keeps me up at night, you probably better you’re better off not worrying about but if you are listening and you want to learn about this stuff, I’ve got to take on it that’s a little bit different than some of the people that you see on the on the screens. And now there’s some smart people on the screens. But like I always say, you get an economist on the screen from Yale, and another one on the other side of the screen from Harvard. And they’re going to have two totally different opinions. So, the end of the day, nobody really knows. Right? So, I think I have just as good an opinion as they do. And, you probably do too. And some of it is like we don’t have we don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes. We don’t have ulterior motives. And if the last couple years have proved anything to us, is that there may be some ulterior motives and the things that our elected officials or that are appointed officials have been feeding us. My goal here is to just educate you and get you to make your own decision. And that you form your own decision. What I care about is that you take information, and I’m not the only source, get other sources. And you start to use your brain to figure out what the information is for you. And how that can affect your finances. And that’s what I’m about, this is the wealth architect podcast. It’s not the wealth politics podcast, right?  

So today, I’m going to be talking about a guy named Mark Zandi Mark Zandi with Moody’s Analytics. Moody’s is the company that right before the big crash of 2007/ 2008, which caused the Great Recession, is a company that came out and basically said, “Bear Stearns is fine, these companies are all fine and gave them all great credit rating”, so they get paid to get great credit rating. So of course, who do they get paid by? The company they are rating? Right? So, the problem there already. And so, you know, it’s not like these guys really know what they’re doing.  My opinion, I got some smart people, but they’re guessing their economy. Economics is guessing. Right? It’s just who guesses best. And so, there’s so many pieces, there’s macro-economic issues, and savings issues and investment issues and debt issues, and the Fed and the spending, and wars and bombs, all that stuff goes in to these opinions. So, get a load of some of what this guy is saying. Now, let me start by telling you that I want you to look at this chart, if you’re on video, if you’re not, what I want you to do is just imagine that there’s a piece of paper in front of you. And there’s a hockey stick that goes from lower left to upper right. And that’s just a small, you know, increase in the debt. Okay, we’re talking about the national debt in the US. And then all of a sudden, it just takes off and it goes straight up like a hockey stick. Right? You got that in your mind. Those of you that are watching us on video, you can see that. So, you can see that’s the debt, the debt is gone parabolic. And we all knew it was going to go parabolic in 2008, when we printed our way out of the financial catastrophe, what we should have done, and we talked about it at the time, is we should have let all the weak companies fail. All the companies that have been taking all this extra risk, and you know, putting all of us at risk and making all of this stuff happen. where people lost their homes, where people, were bankrupted. It created a lot of opportunity, but it would have done it anyway. But it would have cleaned out the phlegm, right? There was a lot of phlegm back then everybody was getting alone, if you could fog a mirror, you could get a loan. And those companies that were, we’re putting the mirror in front of you were all the ones that being irresponsible, they were just making money, and they were greedy, not a single person went to jail, not a single person was fined. Everybody got bailed out. Some companies, they “token” let them go out of business. But at the end of the day, all the guys that were in the group, in the club, got bailed out. And it always happens in, in a society where you have corruption. And I think that’s what we have. Now we have it in spades. And there’s a lot of money sloshing around, there’s a lot of money sloshing around.  My dad always used to say, “never let anybody sit next to a pile of money because they will want to spend it.” And that’s what we do here.  We create infinite amounts of money. And we have been for 100 years, and we certainly have been accelerating, hence the hockey stick over the last couple of years. And there’s waste there that’s causing inflation, I know you’re feeling the inflation. So, I’m setting a stage here. And I’m going to try to make this quick. The government has come out and said, inflation is really high, it’s really bad. And by the way, it’s the worst in 40 years. And they say inflation is up seven and a half percent. Now, I say this all the time, but the last time you went put gas in your car, even before the Ukrainian crisis was your gas only up seven and a half percent. It went from $2 to 369, or $4, or $5 in California, and it’s going higher.  

We have Russian oil, we have we have constraints in oil through straits and waterways, we have all kinds of problems. We have elimination of oil exploration in the United States, we have pipelines that are shut down, we have a lot of constriction that is creating to a lower supply. And if you know anything about supply and demand when there’s a lower supply, but the demand stays the same or goes higher. You get higher prices. And that’s what we’re getting right now. They can blame all the higher prices on Ukraine all they want. But higher prices have been happening since well, for a long time, right? Just go back to 10 years ago, and ask yourself how much you were paying for eggs? how much you were paying for a gallon of gas? how much you were paying for a cup of coffee? whatever it is for you, create your own basket of goods, I can tell you my basket of goods is running about 25 to 30%. Right? A Martini used to cost $9, a call brand Martini. Now Martini cost close to 20. That’s a 50% increase isn’t no seven and a half percent. I don’t care what they say, maybe you’ve got this basket of goods that you don’t need things that are expensive, or you’re not spending any money or whatever. But I don’t believe the official numbers is the point. So, create your own basket of goods. I think that you can use the seven and a half percent for the rest of this video. But the seven and a half percent is a bare minimum. And the Fed has a mandate to try to keep 2%. And last year in 2021. They were running around going well we don’t think inflation is a problem. Like you guys just printed trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars and you’re so stupid to say. “We don’t think inflation is a problem. We think it’s transitory”.  Transitory, well, what is transitory for the next 100 years, it’s transitory. Then they came about few months later and went oops, it’s not so transitory. We’re going to quit using that word. We’re retiring that word they said. So, they realize they screwed up. If you can’t believe them, then why do you believe them now? Why do you ever believe them? Guys? I want you to think by yourself. I want you to think for yourself. So, I want you to go back and listen to this guy. I’m going to play a few excerpts from an interview that he had on CNBC. Some smart stuff that he puts out there, guys, you listen to him, you know how that makes a lot of sense. But I want you to remember, the Fed has their own “mandate to keep”, you know, unemployment, low and inflation at a 2% rate. Well, if inflation is at a seven and a half percent, if you believe that number, then what they’re supposed to do? According to the economic theories that Paul Volcker stated is, you’re supposed to make money more expensive, because if money’s cheap, right, if money’s cheap, everybody borrows it. And they go spend it. When people spend money. Prices go up, right? There’s a lot of money and lots of supply of money. Ooh, you know what, I don’t care if I pay another dollar for that cup of coffee, I got plenty of money, right? I got a raise. You know, I got free money from the government. So, when that money is sloshing around, prices go up. So, what the Fed is supposed to do is make money more expensive, so it’s not sloshing around anymore. The banks don’t loan as much and when they do, it’s costly, right. It basically says slows down the economy. When the economy slows down, there’s not as much money sloshing around it prices are supposed to come down. Paul Volcker, raised prices to like 20%, in the 80s, early 80s, late 70s, right back in that period of time, we had horrible inflation, right? I remember my dad getting a mortgage at like, 20% a year was crazy. But on the other side, you could get a 12% a year CD, you put a million dollars in, you get $120,000 a year out, those days are gone, unfortunately for the old people.  

There’s a strong relationship between inflation expectations, certainly consumer inflation expectations, but also investor inflation expectations. I think you’re referring to the five year break even inflation expectations, they’re very highly correlated to oil prices. And if oil prices come back in the way which I would expect as the Russian Ukraine, event start to wind down.  Going forward, hopefully that’ll happen. But what if it doesn’t happen, right? I mean, they didn’t predict oil going up. They weren’t out there talking about this, and inflation was transitory. But what makes us think that we should believe them that oil prices are going to go down, they’re going to get that exactly right. You know, the supply side disruptions related to the pandemic start to by a global supply chain.  They start to perform a little bit better, inflation comes in, then then that’s a problem. And then I do think the Fed would step on the brakes harder, because at the end of the day, they work really hard to gain the credibility they have around that 2% inflation target, they’re not going to give that up easily. I love how he says supply chains are because of the pandemic, the supply chains are because of the pandemic, the supply chains are because the Fed printed all that money. And because they gave people money to sit at home. And because there were all these little restrictions and little rules about mandates and jabs and hiring and people aren’t happy. And in order to make them happy, you got to pay them more, it’s again goes back to the money inflation. Yeah, I think he’s sending a very clear, crystal clear, strong signal that,” hey, look, we have a 2% target. That’s where we’ve been, that’s where we are. That’s where we’re going to stay. And we’re going to do everything that’s necessary to get us there as fast as possible”. Now, clearly, you’ve got all these things going on with the pandemic and the supply side disruptions in Russia, Ukraine, and it’s going to take a bit of time to get things back down to target, but we are going back to target. Oh, yeah, sending a crystal-clear signal. Have you heard? Have you heard this guy talk? He doesn’t send a crystal-clear signal about anything. If you ask him, do you think inflation is going to stay? You know, at seven and a half percent? He goes, well, maybe we might want to think about joking about making a comment about it being down like he doesn’t answer any single question. And here’s Andy’s saying, Oh, he’s crystal clear. Come on, give me a break, and cement down those inflation expectations? Because then they will they make it a lot easier to actually get inflation down to the target? You know, some are asking Mark, what’s the big deal? If inflation is 3%? Or 3.1%, or 3.2%? Over the next five years? What would you tell them? Well, that presupposes that the Fed can calibrate things exactly. Right. Calibrate, right. They haven’t been able to calibrate anything, right? Certainly, they can’t calibrate anything. Exactly. Right? What makes us think they’re going to be able to calibrate anything exactly right, this guy’s given him a huge benefit of the doubt. And they’ve gotten everything wrong all the way up until now for the last 100 years, and certainly for the last five years easily. But if we’re headed towards three and inflation expectations are going to three, very unlikely that’s where it all stops, and we’re going to blow right past that. And then we’re going to be looking at four or 5 or 6 or 7 percent inflation. We get into that kind of dreaded wage price spiral that really infected the economy back in the 70s. and 80s.  Paul Volcker had to ring out with very high interest rates, and obviously a very, very severe recession. So, you know, 3%, if you kind of land the plane right there, and it stays there. Okay, maybe that’s a reasonable debate. But that’s not what’s going to happen. We’re going to go right past that. And that’s what the Fed does not want to see happen. You know, I understand the concern about the wage price spiral, but you have to have the dry powder, so to speak, to support that, right. You know, if you don’t have an expanding monetary base or expanding, you can only grow wages so much before people have to say,  “we’re laying off workers or we can’t hire or the or we reached this resistance point in the economy”. What is the dry powder that could allow this to just keep going and building on top of itself? Well, I mean, economy strong. I mean, we’re growing year over year. Real GDP growth is 4%, the economy’s creating a half a million jobs, you know, each and every month unemployment is at 4% and falling. And we’ve got a lot of savings out there, you know, the so-called excess savings, the savings that was done above, which would have typically happened, if not for the pandemic, by my calculation, it’s $2.6 trillion. Which well over 10% of GDP, that’s a lot of dry powder. So, this economy can grow along here pretty quickly, the economy, I don’t believe, is at full employment.  We’ve got some latitude there, but we will blow past it. And if we do, then inflation will become, an endemic problem more of an issue as the Fed watch, press on the brakes even harder. Okay, so now I just want to put it in perspective, if the Fed is going to raise rates.  Now they’re talking about raising a quarter of a percent, a quarter, right? So, in a year, that’s 1%, like that doesn’t even make a dent in the seven and a half percent. And we’ve got inflationary stuff going on, we got supply chain issues, we got more Russia issues. And there’s a lot of assumptions like, okay, Russia is going to end everything’s going to go back to normal. No, inflation is here to stay. And it’s going to hurt the poor, it doesn’t hurt the wealthy, the wealthy have enough money to buy gas, the wealthy have enough money to spend $1.89 on a dozen eggs, they can spend $2.69 an extra $1, you know, doesn’t matter.  But the poor that 69cents, that 89 cents makes a difference, right? That’s the difference. It’s like it costs money. When your car goes $2.50 A gallon to fill up to $5 to fill up to what I think is going to go to 750 or maybe even $10 by the end of the year.  You’re going to see major, major problems with people that can’t afford those kinds of those kinds of spending. So, it’s impossible, right? This is all a charade. Here’s what they’re going to do. They’re going to act like they’re going to raise rates, they’re going to raise it a quarter of a point, the markets going to freak out, like, it’s been freaking out for the last six to weeks, right? It’s gone down, then they’re going to go, “oh, man, maybe we can’t raise the rates, or we’re going to find another excuse”. You know what Ukraine’s going on? We need to print some more money, so we can buy some more F 16. And send to Ukraine. We’re going to need to print some more money. So, we can spend it on Raytheon, Raytheon can send some send some of our javelins over there. Who’s paying for that? We are, right. Ukraine doesn’t have industry right now. They’re not making anything. So, we’re paying for it, your taxes are paying it. But you know what? Easy money is easy. Easy come, easy go. Sit next to a pile of money. You want to spend it? Interesting, right? So, I want you to use your own common sense when it comes to what you hear on TV right?  The inflation is seven and a half percent up to 25%. Right. Which means if you keep your money in the bank, you can buy 25% Less next year than you can this year. So, you can’t keep your money in the bank. You can’t keep your money in bonds, because bonds are crashing right now. And bond rates are going up a big deal. They’re going up they give you 2% To keep your money tied up. Right 2%. So, you got to put your money in stocks. You got to put your money in safe havens, because we don’t know what’s going to happen. There’s a lot of turmoil in the world right now with money. So, you got to put your money in gold and silver and Bitcoin, and whatever else will store that value.  Real estate’s good too. So, all I’m trying to say here is you are in control of your financial decisions. And you should know what the people are telling you whether it’s true or not. You get to make your own decision. Don’t just listen to me. I’m just a bald guy on a podcast, right? Go listen to a couple other bald guys on podcasts and make your own decision.  

March 14, 2022

Is the Fed Shorting Bitcoin?

So, the other night, I had a dream, and I woke up from this dream. And it was like it was real. And it was about the Fed. And it was a very scary dream. When I woke up the other day, I haven’t been able to really sleep since and I’ve been thinking about it. I’m like, do I make this podcast? Do I record this concept? Do I freak people out? Do I create controversy? And I’m like, you know what, I got to at least say what I’m thinking. I think the Fed is in trouble.  And if the Fed is in trouble, when you’re in trouble, you do desperate things, right? And I think the Fed has the ability to do desperate things. First of all, let’s start with what the Fed is. The Fed is not even the government, the Fed is some entity that’s owned by people that we don’t know who they are. That it’s called federal. And it’s called reserve. Neither one of those things are true. So just the name Federal Reserve Board, or Federal Reserve Bank, neither of those terms. And those phrases are actually true. Because they’re not federal, they’re not part of the government. They’re not reserves, there are no reserves, there used to be, we used to have some reserves. And you know, they’re not a bank. Like they are a money printing press. So, everything in the name is meant to just obfuscate the kind of tyranny or the kind of lying that’s going on. Now what I mean is you probably are hearing that we are going well, that the United States is fine. And you know, we’ve been fine for 250 years. Yeah, okay, fine. But governments end, right. And when they end, you don’t expect them to end.  Like nobody expected Hitler to come to power, right? Nobody expected. It. 

The concept here is that the Fed is painted into a corner, they started really painting themselves heavily into this corner. Of course, it’s been happening since 1971, when it  went off the gold standard, but it’s happened before and before and before and every government has happened before. 

About when we went off the gold standard, the Fed really went to a totally Fiat by decree, money standard, right, which basically means print money when you want to.  The government now is realizing they’re sitting next to stacks of money and they can buy votes. What they do is they got to pass laws, and they do these big old plans with $3, $4 or $5 trillion. And now we’re just printing money If you look at the graph, it looks like a hockey stick.  And then all of a sudden, it just goes off the off the charts.  It is just straight up right now. And they have to continue printing money because the money has been propping up all these assets. We have bubbles everywhere. We have bubbles in real estate, we have bubbles in the stock market. We had a bubble in cryptocurrency that’s kind of blown up. We’re getting rotating corrections, rotating bubbles bursting around the world. And it’s because we’ve faking, we’ve made money that’s out of nothing. The ECB has done it in Europe, the Japanese yen has done it, not quite to the extent that we’ve done it, China’s doing it, Russia is doing it, everybody’s printing money, and the money is becoming worth less and less. Certainly, when you compare it against Bitcoin, and that’s where I had this dream. And the dream is that the Fed has decided to crush Bitcoin. 

Man, what does that mean? Well, how can you crush Bitcoin? Well, you can crush it by decree. You can crush it with law, you can crush it with the media, you can crush it with FUD, fear, uncertainty and doubt. And that’s what they’re doing.  They are not allowing regulated spot markets. We’re turning down ETFs that are spot currencies even though people want to invest in them. We’re making it really hard for people to buy, with the IRS scrutiny. If you try to open up a crypto account, you can do it but it’s like you have to you know, dance on one foot and eat crackers and sing a song and like you have to do all this stuff because of what they call KYC laws (know your customer) and AML anti money laundering. And by the way, they try to blame crypto and Bitcoin for money laundering. But it’s not like the dollar or the yen, or the euro doesn’t have anything to do with money laundering. I mean, people walk around bags of cash and buy drugs and you know, they hide money and it’s just crap, right? And so, the Fed is really threatened by Bitcoin, specifically the other Cryptos maybe too, but mainly Bitcoin. Why? Bitcoin has a scarcity? It has 21 million, and that’s all that’s ever going to be printed for Bitcoin. So, everything else will be measured in Bitcoin at some point, because it’s got the only thing that doesn’t move in value, right? It’s a Bitcoin, like, I don’t know if people think Bitcoin crashed or not. But the way I look at it is when I bought a Bitcoin, a few months ago, it’s still worth one Bitcoin, right? It may not be worth as many dollars to the Bitcoin, but that fluctuates. A few months before that it was worth twice as many dollars or three times it’s gone up 50,000% in 11 years. 

If you measure it by the dollar, if you measure it by the Bitcoin, it’s the same. Gold is got the same value, right? It still buys the same amount that it did before. It’s just measured in dollars, so you could see fluctuating. Alright, so I thought, would the Fed, could the Fed be sinister enough to short Bitcoin? 

Alright, so let me explain what shorting is. First of all, shorting is when you sell something you don’t own. In the stock market, normally people go and buy low and you sell high. That’s how people make money. Well, in the stock market, and in other markets, you can short things, which means you sell them first. And you can buy them back at a later price, hopefully a lower price at a later date. And so that what happens, let’s say you wanted to short Tesla, you think that they’re not going to hit their numbers this quarter, you think that Elon Musk is a jerk, whatever it is, and you short Tesla at $1,100? And you say, “I’m going to buy Tesla back when it goes to $900”. That means you can make $200 on your $1,100 investment. Because it is an investment, even though it’s short. When you sell something, of course, you know what happens? You get money when you sell something. 

But how can you sell something you don’t own? Well, the way mechanically it works behind the scenes, is you have to go borrow it from somebody who’s willing to lend it to you. So, you have to go borrow those shares of Tesla, and then you go out and sell them.  Then you have to pay something to the people you’re borrowing them for. Because when you borrow something, you usually incur interest, you’re borrowing, you’re incurring an interest charge, you’re paying to the people that lent it to you, and then you’re hoping it goes down. And when it goes down, you can use that interest to pay back the person that lends it to you. Okay, that’s what happens behind the scenes, you borrow it, you short it, you sell it, and then you hopefully buy it back at a lower price. Instead of buying low and selling high, you just do it in the opposite order. You sell high and you buy low. 

But we all have, you and me and the institutions, we don’t have unlimited money. But you know, who does the Fed. So, in a normal case, if you short Tesla, and it goes up, they make you come up with the money because it could it could go up to infinity, I would say you know if you short things, it’s really risky, because things could go to infinity when nothing goes to infinity, but doesn’t mean you can’t withstand a big old spike. 

And so, if Tesla starts to run up, the brokerage firm calls you up, and they say, “Hey, Mark, it’s time for you to bring in some more money, because now you’re out of whack”. If Tesla keeps going up, you need, we mark the price to the market.  And when we mark it to the market, that means if it’s going to 1300 you got to come up with that extra 200 bucks because now, you’re in the hole and the brokerage firm isn’t going to pay it… !? 

So, what about Bitcoin?  What about the Fed? The Fed might have put out through its minions. By the way, the government would never lie to us, right? They would never take our gold; they would never lie to us. They would never tell us that there’s weapons of mass destruction in Iraq so, we need to go and invade. They would never lie to us. Why would they do that? They lie to us all the time, guys, especially lately. I don’t know if you’ve noticed. But let’s just say that they’re lying to us in this case, or maybe they’re not. But they’re they might be saying through a subsidiary located in Switzerland, Luxembourg, or even, you know, stateside one,” hey, listen, we’re going to just keep giving you money, all you have to do is short Bitcoin, drive it down”. And bitcoin comes down 50% this year, if you measure it against the dollar. And so, they started at 65,000 – 69,000. They just started shorting it. They said, “we’re going to be out of business anyway so what do we have to lose, we’re in trouble”. Go ahead and start shorting it, we’ll keep giving you money. 

And, you know, if it goes up, we’ll give you more money. But if it goes down, you’ll be here, we’re going to be in a profit, you’re not going to have to come up with any money. And so, they’ve driven it down. Let’s say, this isn’t a dream, right? So, they’ve driven it down and they keep driving it down and they’re up 50% on their investment at some point. They’re going to have to buy it back. Maybe. Or they just keep driving it down until people can’t take it anymore. They can’t take it anymore, and then they have enough time to cover it up. Oh, it’s so good. So, it’s so risky, it’s going to hurt people, it’s already gone 70% 80% 90%. No one will be able to buy it all back. But nobody will be able to buy it from them. Because they’ll have outlawed it, at least here in the United States. This is just a theory, just a dream, just the concept. But imagine because they have unlimited wealth, unlimited ability to print money, that as it goes up, they just keep shorting it because they could keep, you know, keep putting the money in, and they can keep the price depressed. Now I think eventually it tips because you’re starting to see countries go to Bitcoin, you’re starting to see states, Texas, Arizona, Tennessee, Oklahoma, they’re all talking about a Bitcoin standard in their states, there are cities, Miami city, that’s Bitcoin, the mayor of New York is taking a Bitcoin salary, a lot of sports people, it’s getting out of their control, and they’re running out of time. 

So, they need to crush it. Now, I know this is controversial, and it’s just a dream, right? It’s just a bad dream or a nightmare. But what if the Fed actually did have the power? Or did have the idea to short Bitcoin? Because a lot of people are saying, you know, isn’t affected by Bitcoin, because they’re behind the curve, you know, and if they started investing in Bitcoin, then they’ll be part of the future. But the Fed doesn’t think like that. The Fed is a self-preservation entity. And if they can crush Bitcoin, rather than being part of it, it’s a competitor that can crush them. 

And maybe that’s the solution. 

Now, I’ve never heard anybody talk about this, but I think it’s viable. I think it’s possible. And it’s awfully scary. Because if they can do that with your money, because this is your money, your taxes are going to fund the money to pay back all these deficits that we’re running, and these fake printing presses that the Fed is using. 

If the Fed is using your money to do that, you should have a say in it, because it’s your money. 

It’s really scary. 

If there’s a place below the video, if you’re watching the video, make a comment. If there’s a place where you can make a comment on the podcast, make a comment. I’m curious to see what you think. By the way, follow me like subscribe, you know all that stuff. It would really help me out a lot. We’re getting this podcast going right now. And we could really use your support. I hope you like the little dream that I put out. I hope you like the concepts that we’re going to be starting to put out.  Might be a little controversial. Might not might be the future. I don’t know. But boy, is it scary if the Fed could short Bitcoin with your money, run it out of business, the only thing that’s really competing with it. 

 Think about it.

March 14, 2022

Kamala to the Rescue

We are right in the middle of a war, well actually we’re not in the middle of it. It’s not our war, but we’re certainly interested in it because the press keeps throwing it in our face. And, there is some oppression going on, it’s been happening for thousands of years. And maybe we should feel like we’re somewhat responsible because we really are. But we’re good though, we’ve got a solution, we’re going to be sending in Kamala Harris or the vice president to solve the problem, just like she solved the border problem, they sent her over there. And they said, “Here, we’ve got a problem at the border, make sure you go check it out”. And that’s what she did. She went checked it out, and she’s solved the problem. And I guess they’re sending her over to Ukraine, and she’s going to solve the problem. She’s our vice president. So, you know, everybody’s going to listen to her, because she’s the second person in command underneath Joe Biden, everybody listens to him. So, I saw this clip, not sure if you saw it, but you should want to watch this clip. Now, Fox News, and I’m not trying to be political. This is actually a little bit tongue in cheek but I just think this is so funny. That, we’re trying to have with this really serious thing, with millions of people being displaced, with people’s bank accounts being frozen, with people being killed and bombs going off in a country, and a real calamity is starting to happen in another country. And we’re sending in probably our most unserious person to solve the problem. I don’t know how much gravitas she has around the world; I find it to be interesting that this is the choice rather than sending the President or sending somebody with some serious demeanor, they send this person take a look.  Here is an excerpt: “It is time for us to do what we have been doing and that time as every day. Every day, it is time for us to agree. This whole thing about the border, we’ve been to the border, we’ve been to the border, you haven’t been to the board. And I haven’t been to Europe. And my pronouns are she her and hers, she would look down at me and come on, what do you want? What do you want, and I look back up and I said, you’re going to literally see the craters on the moon with your own eyes, I’m telling you, we must together work together to see where we are, where we are headed, but also see it as a moment. Yes. Together, it is the perspective of a woman who grew up a black child in America, who was also a prosecutor who also has a mother who arrived here at the age of 19 from India, who also you know, likes hip hop. What do you want to know?” So, we think that this is our person, that is, I think she’s like a BS artist or whatever. Like, I don’t think even if you voted for her, whether you didn’t doesn’t really matter to me, you can’t look at this person and go, oh, this person is going to be able to interface with high level people around Europe and Putin, and be able to really solve this problem and figure out a way to credibly, you know, take care of the whole Ukraine Russia situation, like, I don’t think you’re thinking clearly and you can really think that. Maybe you can? Anyway, my opinion, I can’t. I can’t possibly look at this person. I just think it’s funny that this is what we do. We’re obviously not serious about being involved in solving this problem, right? If we were, we would say, “Okay, let’s turn on the pipeline. Let’s start to drill a little bit more, let’s figure out ways to get oil under control, we’ve got an inflation problem, that’s going to get 10 times worse”. Oil hit $115 A barrel today, never thought I’d be saying that this year. Right. There was a time a couple of years ago, where it was minus dollars, right? You they paid you to buy oil, right? But for a while, you know, a couple years ago was at $46 a barrel for a long time it was pretty stable. We’re paying $2.49 a gallon. Now it’s going to five and in six dollars, California, you’re going to see $10 gas, I think by the end of the year. Why? Well, you know, we’ve got some global warming and let’s shut off all the nuclear plants because they’re so bad for the environment. They’re not.  They’re actually one of the cleanest forms of energy that we have. But the Germans were like, “Hey, let’s shut them off. And we’ll turn on our windmills and our solar panels”. And now they’re really screwed because now they’ve got to rely on Russia to give them oil and gas. And since the United States decided to shut off their capacity, when we were the world’s producer of oil, now we’re the net importer of oil. We’ve got to import Russian oil. So, our costs are going to go up, that means we’re competing against the Europeans. And their costs are going to go up, like, nobody’s got a plan. Or if they do?  This is the plan. The plan is to make it so expensive to drive a car, that you’re just going to throw your car away, go buy an electric vehicle, by the way, you forgot that electricity is produced by a lot of other things other than the sun and the wind, which only work part of the time. Anyway, I’m getting off on this. But to me, this is a whole podcast about how serious are we as a nation? How serious are we as a world of creating stability. Now, we don’t have stability anymore, we have the potential for a madman that’s going to explode some nukes, because we wanted to get rid of our gas cars and go to electric cars, or because we wanted to put a few more solar panels in.  Nobody’s really thinking of the repercussions of being a weak power. And the United States, in my opinion, love this country, but we’re at the end of our strength. We’re at the end of being a superpower in the world.  The new superpowers in the world, are Russia and China. That’s the way it is.  Everybody that is in Europe, they’re weak. Germany is now you know, they are reliant on Russia, and China.  And, if you started to look at the world politics, you would see, this all makes total sense. This is all calculated, everybody makes fun that Trump gave a compliment to Putin. All he did was say, the guy’s a genius, right? Like, you don’t have to like him to know that he’s got a plan, right. And his plan seems to be working. He’s driving everybody else’s oil prices up higher. And we’re financing his war, because we’re paying more than a billion dollars a day to Russia, by just driving around in our cars, so that he can fund this war. Are we going to stop driving around in our cars? Oh, maybe we should have thought of that, before we empowered this plan. So, say what you want about him, or say what you don’t want about him. But the plan is, the point is, he’s got a plan in his mind. And his plan is probably way, way, way ahead of the people, like the person that I just showed you, who’s supposed to be the person that’s going to go to Europe and solve all of these problems. Because when she went there before, a couple of months ago, she said she had it under control. Don’t worry, it’s all good. We got out of control. I’m going to go ahead and rein everybody in. And now you see what is happening. So, we’re clearly not serious about it. And it’s affecting our wallets. This is the wealth architect podcast. And I want you to know, whatever you think about politics, at the end of the day, it comes down to money. And so, you’re going to be spending way more money on the things that you buy. One of the things you buy is oil, and everything else that you buy relies on oil, right? Everything gets trucked to your store. So, when the store is paying more for diesel and gas and truckers, you’re going to be paying more for your lettuce and your eggs and your meat and your dairy. Right? So don’t think this is Putin over there doing something. This is affecting your wallet. Right? Our foreign policy is affecting your wallet. And this is the way we’re handling the situation. 

March 9, 2022

Will the Fed Kill The Housing and Mortgage…

So, the markets have been crashing for maybe three or four weeks, and at the beginning of January, the beginning of 2022. And the market had just gone down and down and down. In fact, the NASDAQ was down about 17% from the time around Thanksgiving, the end of November. And so, the market is crashing. Why? Well, because the Fed came out and said, “we got to get on top of this inflation situation and that inflation has gotten out of hand…”.  

What are they doing? They’re going to raise rates as if that’s going to solve the problem. Well, when you raise rates, you put brakes on the economy. Why is that? Well, first of all, you raise rates, and it makes it harder for people to borrow. It’s more expensive. People don’t want to spend more money on mortgages. And so, people quit spending money on mortgages. Well, when you quit spending money on mortgages, people quit selling houses, or building houses, or buying houses.  

And so, the housing market starts to slow down. When the housing market starts to slow down, what happens? People get laid off, when people get laid off.. What do they do? Well, they look to the government for money, or, you know, they take a wage cut. But that’s not good for the economy, you need velocity of money, you need money moving around a society to be able to sustain it. That’s the way we’ve set up our capitalism, right? We’ve gotten people addicted to consumption, instead of production. And so, now we consume things. But what happens when people don’t have jobs where they can’t buy the handbag? Or the Gucci shoes or the Nikes? Right? They quit spending money? Well, when you quit spending money, people quit paying taxes, or pay less. And it’s a downward spiral. So without getting into the debate of whether the Fed can really raise rates on a sustained basis, because they said they’re going to raise it four to six times this year.  

I don’t think they’re going to be able to even do one, they’re going to try it, and it will spook the markets like it already has. And they’re going to go, okay, okay, because their real mandate now is not inflation, their mandate is not let the market go down. Because, you know, politicians are the ones that appoint them.  

So, I think they’re painted into such a corner. And the question is this, is it going to kill the mortgage market? And therefore, is it going to kill the housing market? If the Fed raises rates, what people hope and what Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman hopes, is that he’s going to raise rates a little.  

And they will say, well, it’s only a quarter of a point, it won’t kill the market. So, we will raise it another quarter point, the market gets used to it. But see, it won’t. You can’t, if you take a tissue, and you hold it up on top of your head, and you start to blow the tissue up, the tissue will rise.  

But eventually, the tissue will come back, because you’re going to have to take a breath. So, Jerome Powell is hoping that the market just takes a little breath, and then the tissue will continue to rise. But the problem is, he doesn’t have much breath anymore, right? They have no more tools in the toolbox. And so that’s what’s happening to the government, to the Fed, is that they’re screwed, he can’t really raise rates, because the markets will continue to crash.  

So, I think they’re going to cause a big housing bubble to burst, they’re going to cause a mortgage problem, they’re going to kill the housing market, it’s going to create a recession. I think it’s beyond a shadow of a doubt. Now, if it’s a depression that comes out of a recession, we’re in real trouble. Because we’ve weakened the dollar, we’re at a real risk of losing the US Dollar as the reserve currency.  

But we put sanctions on Iran over the last 10 years because Iran’s the bad guys right? We deem them bad guys. And so since Iran are bad guys, we tie up all their money.  

Whether you agree or not whether we should do that. That is what the US does. It is that “where’s the big bully in town”? We then say “don’t let anybody do any business with Iran”. So, Iran says, “well, we got all this oil, who wants some oil”?   

We don’t want to make America mad at us, right? America’s big and strong. We don’t want to make them mad. But after a while people are like, you know, “screw America”. They’re blowing everything up. They’re, bombing people that don’t need to be bombed, and they’re printing money that doesn’t need to be printed. And they’re, ruining the dollar. We’re using it and they’re debasing it.  

Hey, Iran, maybe we come up with a little something else to use to buy your oil. They’ve come up with a makeshift thing that they’ve cobbled together other than the dollar to buy their oil.  

And now they’re doing Bitcoin.  

So now that Iran, one of the biggest oil producers in the world, is telling people just pay us in Bitcoin, go around the dollar, we don’t need it anymore. You know, where else is this going to happen?  

It’s going to happen in Russia, where everybody’s trading oil and gas and everything else in Petrodollars. And Russia’s like, “I think we have a weakness here”. We’ve got a weak president over there in the United States, potentially. And if he’s weak, then maybe we’re strong, and we can weaken the dollar. We’ve wanted to get off this dollar reserve system for a long time. Why don’t we go ahead and weaken the dollar? Or forget about the dollar all together? Let’s look to use Bitcoin. They haven’t said they’re going to do it yet. But you know what they did recently, they came out and said:  

We think that Russia can be a big player in the mining business. Pretty good. That doesn’t sound like an outing of Bitcoin to me. And then one of their members of parliament, and their financial ministry came out and said, “we’re going to figure out a way to regulate Bitcoin, so that it’s fair to everybody”. They didn’t say anything about banning it, or getting rid of it like China says they’re going to try to do. Because China wants everybody to be on their central bank, digital currency. That”s their crypto.    

Russia is like, “hey, why don’t we get people trading Bitcoin over here”? And then we can trade oil with Bitcoin. And then other people, other countries will accept Bitcoin, and we can blow the US out of the water and the US is no longer the reserve currency. US is having supply chain problems anyway; people are going to move over to some new currency anyway. Russia doesn’t have to create it and have to compete against China. China doesn’t have to create it and, you know, blow everybody else out. It’s already there. Just use it.  

That’s a real potential.  

It’s really interesting to see what’s going on in the world when it comes to this. Hope that was helpful. I just wanted to shed some light on those subjects.  

March 9, 2022

Predictions 2022

We’re going to go through what I consider a fool’s errand, and that is to predict 2022. Now, I normally don’t like to make predictions, but you know what? A lot of people ask me for them. So, listen, I’m not a financial adviser, I don’t get financial advice. This is all just opinion, talk to your financial planner, get your attorney involved, whatever, but don’t come after me. Because this is not financial advice, it is just my opinion based on 40 something years of being in the markets. So, I want to start by telling you, look, I don’t want to make a prediction, but I’m going to make a prediction. If we go back and we see this age as well, great. If we go back, and we see that it doesn’t, great. But the bottom line is that it educates you, and starts to get you to think so. The first one right off the bat is very micro, and that is that Amazon will underperform. What I’m seeing in Amazon, I’ve ordered a couple things from them. They’re not showing up at my door, the orders are getting lost, they’re getting canceled. I’m hearing about it happening to a few other people. And there’s a little chink in the armor of Amazon and I think it’s the supply chain. Now everybody says, oh, no, no, they got their own ships, they got their own shipping. But, you know, if there’s a supply chain happening to Walmart, there’s probably happening to Amazon. I don’t think their growth is going to be as much as it was. And I think the pandemic is going to curtail, we’ll talk about that prediction in a minute. And as the present pandemic curtails fewer things will be ordered at home, not many fewer things, but fewer things enough to make you a little bit scared of the next quarterly report. So, I think Amazon this year, or at least part of this year will underperform the stock market. Number two, speaking of the market, I think we’re going to see a stock market crash of probably 20% or more, and that’s considered a crash or correction or whatever you want to look at it crash gets headlines, but bottom line is markets correct about every year, at least 10%, sometime during the year, on average, and every couple of years. Certainly, you know, every few years, you get a big correction. And I think we’re setting up for one of those corrections, I think we’re getting bubbles in a lot of different places. We’ve seen a bubble in cryptocurrency, we’ve seen a bubble in real estate in certain parts of the country, it’s an incredible level, we’re seeing bubbles in the stock market. The next one is two or more governments or currencies will collapse. Now at the beginning of 2022. And by the way, we’re recording this on the 13th of January 2022. We’re seeing that Turkey’s lira is collapsing, right? It’s collapsed by about 40%. This year against the dollar, huge inflation people are going into Bitcoin, right? That’s a foreshadowing, I think of something going on. But we’re going to see a couple of governments either fail or collapse. We’ve created a lot of fakeness in the last couple years of this pandemic. And we’ve flooded the markets with certain things, and Turkey has been no exception. They’ve put fake stuff into their market, now they’re paying the price. And I think President Erdogan of Turkey is not an economist, and he’s doing the exact wrong thing. And it’s debasing their currency even more, and now they’re going in and they’re stealing it from the companies, they’re taking their foreign reserves. It’s not good, but I think Turkey might be one of them. And there might be two or three other ones as well. And you’re going to see that there’s going to be some collapse collapses of government a little bit of disturbance this year, in the world markets. Bitcoin is going to be adopted as legal tender, and at least two countries, we already know that it’s adopted as legal tender alongside the dollar in El Salvador. And I think it’s going to happen in a couple other countries, Tonga being one of them, some other African countries being other ones, potentially Venezuela and Argentina, you might see them adopt some kind of a Bitcoin standard, because Bitcoin has a scarcity, right? They’re only going to make 21 million Bitcoin. It’s not like they’re just printing free money. And, you know, people are looking at that, like, why would we want to invest in the dollar and use that as our currency when we could just go to Bitcoin, and if they can, they will, or at least it’ll be alongside the dollar or alongside their own currency, it’d be interesting. The Fed is going to try to raise rates in 2022. They’ve signaled that they’re going to do that the signal that to curtail buying of assets, they’re called a taper. I think the pet for the Fed is in such a corner, I don’t think they’re going to be able to do it, they’re going to probably try to raise rates, the predictions from Goldman Sachs is it’s going to happen four times this year, the Fed says three, I think you’re looking at one, and I think soon as they try to raise the rates, and the market crashes or we get some kind of a pullback or a hiccup, the Feds going to go okay. Alright, let’s just print more money. I think the Feds are going to fail on that. And the government therefore will continue to debase the currency. We’re going to continue to have spending programs into an election year, and we’re going to continue to print more money, because we’re going to figure some crisis to say we need to give some free money to buy some boats. For this, this list of constituents, things like that a Bitcoin spot ETF is going to be approved. Okay, a Bitcoin spot ETF there’s a futures ETF on Bitcoin that’s been approved. And there’s been talk of a spot ETF being approved. But it’s been a lot of years coming and still hasn’t come. I think this is the year I think that’s this is the year for a lot of clarity to come in Bitcoin and in cryptocurrency, so that’s going to be interesting. Another 20 million people are going to adopt Bitcoin right now it’s at 130 million people around the world are using it, it’s just a drop in the bucket of what I think is going to happen. So, another 20 million people will probably adopt it this year. That’s a big number, right? And then gold is going to hit $2,000. In an ounce, we’re in an inflationary environment where the government says we’re have, we have 7% inflation, and you should watch my other podcast or see some of my videos about inflation. I think 7% is a lie, I think it’s more like 20%. And because that’s certainly the amount of money they’re printing. And so, I think gold is an inflationary hedge. And as an inflationary hedge, the dollar is going to continue to go down, and therefore gold will continue to go up against the dollar. And I think we’re going to see $2,000 An ounce this year. And my last prediction, we’re going to all be okay. Things happen in the world; they always have happened in the world. And when they’re right in front of us, they seem big. And when you look at them in the rearview mirror, they look smaller and smaller and smaller. So sometimes when you go back, you don’t even realize that they were big at one point, right? We’re already looking at 911, we’ve forgotten the pain of 911. If you look back to 1963, you forget the pain of JFK assassination. Right. Lincoln’s assassination is even similar. And what about Napoleon and things that happened? 500,000 years ago, you probably couldn’t even remember or very few.   Very few people’s lives you can you actually quote or remember. So those things get smaller and smaller, and they’re just little blips on the chart of life. I think we’re all going to be okay. What I would say guys is step away from the social media, step away from the TV, spend some time with the people that you love, laugh, live, enjoy life, don’t get caught up in the political stuff, and the strife that we have, it’s being created by the media. And I think your life is going to be way better. So those are my predictions for 2022. Don’t quote me on it, but you probably will. And, you know, anybody that makes predictions is setting themselves up for failure. And I know that but I’m doing it anyway because a lot of people were asking me about it.  

 

 

March 9, 2022

Freedom Trucker Convoy

So, there was a big old trucker convoy going on in Canada.  I don’t know if you know, but a couple of weeks ago, Canada put out an edict that says, hey, if you’re coming to Canada and you’re a trucker, you need to be vaccinated. Well, about half the truckers estimated about half of them aren’t, but truckers are really in demand. Right now, we have a supply chain crisis. And truckers are ”you ain’t gonna tell me what to do?” Well, maybe a couple of them said, “you can tell me what to do.” Because otherwise they didn’t want to lose their trucking job, or they didn’t care about getting the you know, the shot. But now what’s happening is they started to talk on their little radios, and all of a sudden, it became a huge movement to say, “hey, look, government’s not going to tell us what to do.” The US government got involved and says you’re not coming over here, unless you’ve gotten the shot. So, the truckers like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, hang on a second. And they started creating this convoy. And they were on a mission. Many had driven all across Canada. And I think there were about 50,000 trucks or something like that, like all kinds of trucks, dump trucks, garbage trucks, diesels, 18 wheelers, whatever kind of truck, and even pickup trucks. Then cars started joining. At the time it was 70 kilometers long, which is about 40-50 miles long. Imagine 40 to 50 miles of trucks that were headed to the capital of Canada in Ottawa. Right. So these trucks had made their way to Canada, and people were joining in, there were people on bridges, and they were waving their flags, and the press was not covering it because they didn’t want to show that people have power, even if they don’t have some weaponry. Their weaponry is their ability to join together. And Canadians were just tired of being pushed around like they had been pushed around for almost two years. They weren’t able to go out, they had curfews and one of the things I heard was that you could not go to Costco nor Walmart unless you were escorted in and you were only allowed to buy groceries. Unless you had the jab. And you can only go into buy groceries and food you can’t buy like other stuff that Costco or Walmart sells. And then you’re escorted out. Otherwise, you’re locked down in your home. Here we are two years later, everybody’s been the good little person in Canada, because that’s what Canadians do. They comply with stuff. They’re really nice people. So, they comply. They believe their government. They believe Trudeau is awesome or whatever. I don’t know what they believe about that guy. But like they’ve done everything they were supposed to do. If they were still getting sick, they were like, wait a minute, what are we doing? Especially the truckers were like, wait a second, you need us. And if you need somebody, you don’t piss them off. All that to say, they ended up pissing off the truckers and so the truckers got together and they all headed to Ottawa. At the time you could not get in or out of Ottawa, the capital of Canada. It’s a small town. A good leader would normally stand up and state, “I believe that this is the right thing to do.” But what did the Canadian leader do? He left, he took off in the middle of the night and went to some little secret hideout, because he was scared of the truckers. What were they going to do to him? They had been oppressed for a long time, and they were not taking anymore. I find it really funny that the press didn’t really cover it. They were more worried about Neil Young, this 107-year-old rock and roll guy that is a has been pulling his music off of Spotify, which is not even really a story. And some other guy named Nils Lofgren in Norway pulling his stuff off of Spotify and Joni Mitchell. All these really old artists are pulling their music off of Spotify. Nobody knows who they are anyway. So, it’s not like they were going to drop in sales. They’re just jerks, trying to force one of the only bastions of free speech, which is Spotify, to get rid of other people’s podcasts. Joe Rogan, for example, they did not want Joe Rogan’s podcasts on there, because he allows people say it how it is. He doesn’t censor people; he shuts up and lets people talk and they don’t like that. Because it’s not part of the narrative. It’s not part of the Trudeau narrative, either. They’re more concerned about that. And so, people were looking at that going, “Hey, wait a minute here.” Why do we care about this? But that’s who the press is and was covering, because they didn’t want you to know that there was a big movement that was very powerful, and might have a big voice. There are some really interesting things going on in the world today. It’s happening in Australia, where they’ve been the most oppressed country for the last two years. It’s going to happen and it’s starting to happen in the United States. It’s happening in Canada. It’s happening in France; it’s happening around the world. You’re not hearing about it, because the press has their own agenda. So very left-wing agenda. I know what they’re trying to do. But I have a feeling it’s not good. And a look if it’s good, let people talk. Right? Let people have a debate about it. Don’t censor them. This is what Russia did. Right? We had, Pravda was supposed to be the truth, right? That was the official paper of the USSR back in the 60-70s. Well, that was all government approved stuff that they propagandize that to you, right? That was what you read. You were like, “well, this is a truth.” But there wasn’t another side, there wasn’t a debate and you saw how oppressed those people were. And we’re going in that same direction, because we’re systemically trying to get rid of our institutions, and trying to create censorship so that people can talk. It’s a real shame. But those truckers in Canada, hats off to them. And I give them a lot of credit for doing what they did because they may make some changes in the world. Time will tell..  

 

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